Crypto Markets Never Sleep: What’s Next After the U.S. Election?

The Founding Fathers of the U.S. established a dual voting system — blending popular votes with the Electoral College — to protect a republic based on states’ rights and avoid the tyranny of a simple majority. Ironically, cryptocurrencies, initially celebrated for their decentralization, now find themselves intertwined with political dynamics as they work to secure their future. In doing so, they’re moving away from their origins while shaping a new direction.

Fragmented Crypto Policies, and Uncertainty

The election is over, and the outlook for crypto remains positive. Trump, a vocal supporter of crypto, is likely to continue the Biden administration’s moderate approach — controlling but not banning crypto.

Meanwhile, a crypto lobbying network has begun to influence U.S. policy. Campaigns like Coinbase’s “Stand with Crypto” and various PACs (Political Action Committees) supported by crypto groups have helped the industry survive the post-FTX era. With CZ now out of prison, crypto assets appear to have gained implicit acceptance within the U.S. political system.

One intriguing shift is Trump’s evolving stance on cryptocurrency. Previously, he publicly criticized Bitcoin as a scam and called for action against it. Recently, however, his views have softened, and he’s started supporting crypto development.

For instance, at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference, Trump announced that, if re-elected, he would make Bitcoin a U.S. strategic reserve asset and aim to position the U.S. as a global crypto hub. He also pledged to protect Bitcoin mining rights, oppose the development of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), and strengthen America’s role in the global crypto landscape.

By contrast, Harris has taken a more moderate approach. While she voiced support for emerging technologies like AI and digital assets during her campaign, her specific stance on crypto is less defined. She has committed to improving the regulatory environment for the U.S. crypto industry but remains cautious about issues such as taxation, Bitcoin mining, and self-custody. She also supports increased investment in AI and the crypto industry.

Overall, Trump has shown stronger backing for cryptocurrency, aiming to make the U.S. a global crypto leader. Harris is viewed as more conservative, focusing on regulation and investor protection. While she’s open to the industry, her policies are expected to echo the Biden administration’s balanced approach to crypto oversight.

In reality, the difference between Trump and Harris lies in their degree of support: Trump would champion crypto more actively, while Harris would likely adopt a moderate, cautious stance. Compared to other countries, the U.S. would remain one of the world’s most crypto-friendly nations.

Close Election, Promising Market Forecasts

This election has spotlighted on-chain prediction markets like Polymarket, marking one of the most successful real-world crypto applications since Uniswap. Although still considered financial tools on-chain, these platforms have attracted substantial mainstream interest. In crypto history, this represents a major step toward mass adoption.

Following the election, the long-term trend for crypto markets will hinge on Washington’s policies.

Historically, BTC and other major crypto assets have performed well post-election. However, BTC’s price is unlikely to see the explosive growth it enjoyed in its early days. Instead, a steady upward trend, more akin to stock indices and commodities, is likely. The “get rich in one night” era in crypto may be ending, as investors increasingly seek stable returns rather than astronomical gains.

Political developments will continue to shape crypto’s evolution, particularly for real-world assets (RWA) and stablecoins.

RWAs bring a traditional finance approach to crypto, emphasizing compliance and institutional operation. While projects like BlackRock and Ondo have collaborated in this area, RWAs aren’t yet fully integrated into the regulatory framework, limiting adoption by traditional financial institutions. If regulations ease post-election, crypto could enter an era driven by institutional involvement.

One certainty is that the U.S. is unlikely to launch a CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency). Instead, it will likely rely on dollar-pegged stablecoins to fulfill the dollar’s role in the digital age. Dollar-backed projects, such as yield-generating and payment products, are expected to enter a new growth phase.

In particular, crypto is becoming essential financial infrastructure in developing countries, serving a role similar to credit cards in the U.S. and online payment in China. Crypto products have already entered the top ten financial applications in Africa, proving they’re no longer niche solutions.

Crypto will continue to grow roots across Asia, Africa, and Latin America, branching out and thriving independently.

Conclusion

At the end of last month, Bitcoin celebrated the 16th anniversary of its white paper, signaling a shift from its adolescent years into maturity. Financialization has, in some ways, accelerated crypto’s evolution.

While election season may have temporarily heightened crypto’s profile, true innovation and widespread adoption often happen quietly among everyday users.